Financial markets anticipate with high probability a 25 basis point increase in the deposit facility, currently at 2%. If Christine Lagarde confirms this move, it will be the first hike since September 2023 and will signal the start of a new dynamic. "Every time the ECB moves rates, the focus shifts to the Euribor and mortgages. But the other side of the coin, savings, often takes a backseat," highlights Antonio Gallardo, financial expert at Banqmi.
The ECB's official rates are not just a benchmark for mortgage lending but also set the opportunity cost of money that banks gather from retail customers. When rates rise, term deposits, interest-bearing accounts, and money market funds tend to improve their profitability. However, banks' transmission of these changes is often asymmetric: rate cuts are quickly passed on to liabilities, while hikes are applied more slowly.
In the Spanish context, the banking sector has excess liquidity, partly due to the ECB's TLTRO loans. This reduces the urgency for large entities to attract retail deposits. Nevertheless, the prospect of another rate hike is already driving offers, primarily from smaller institutions, neobanks, and pan-European platforms.
Interest-bearing accounts, according to Alessio Zambón, Marketing Manager at Banco Mediolanum, operate more gradually. "With rate hikes, their profitability may improve, but they usually remain below term deposits." The difference between leaving €20,000 in a current account and placing it at 3% exceeds €600 gross annually, a gap that widens as rates increase.
From Thursday onwards, if the hike is confirmed, banks will have more incentives to compete for liabilities amid higher demand for business loans. However, large banks are expected to focus more on personalized offers for premium clients rather than general campaigns. "Inactivity – money sitting in an unremunerated current account while prices rise – becomes a very concrete cost," concludes Zambón, who advises being proactive with savings and seeking better offers to avoid losing purchasing power.
