The Canary Islands Situation 2026 report, prepared by BBVA, highlights tourism's ability to safeguard the archipelago's economic prosperity. Projections indicate a growth of 2.5% for this year and 2% in 2027, surpassing estimates for Spain as a whole. This trend, already observed in recent years, is attributed to intense tourist activity and its stimulating effect on the regional economy.

Despite the warning from Miguel Cardoso, BBVA's chief economist in Spain, about the potential impact of geopolitical conflicts on forecasts, the Canary Islands could benefit from a diversion of tourists opting to avoid destinations near conflict zones, a situation similar to that experienced during the Arab Spring. This additional influx of visitors could offset a previously anticipated slowdown in tourist spending and overnight stays.

The archipelago also shows strength in domestic consumption, with a 3.8% increase in spending by BBVA clients during the first quarter of the year. Furthermore, the region has less energy dependence as it is not a net exporting community, which gives it some resilience against rising oil prices. However, increased freight and transport costs could affect the price of imported products.

Regarding the labor market, the report forecasts the creation of 35,000 new jobs in the coming years. However, it emphasizes the need to improve productivity, which is currently 18% below the Spanish average, to prevent a decline in GDP per capita. Wages in the Canary Islands will continue to grow, having surpassed inflation last year with a 5% increase in collective agreements, compared to 3.5% nationally.

Finally, the study identifies structural challenges such as housing, where the gap between household creation and new home construction makes it difficult to hire staff. Long-term unemployment persists, despite the demand for workers in various sectors. Investment in key areas such as electricity generation is also presented as a priority for the future development of the Canary Islands.