The research, which also involves the Spanish Institute of Oceanography, the University of Manchester Metropolitan, and the Center for International Forestry Research, terms these links “climatic teleconnections.” Scientists propose their analysis as a “clue” to predict where and when the risk of Ebola increases.
According to data from the National Institute of Public Health (INSP) of the Democratic Republic of Congo as of September 26, the epidemic that began in May has recorded over 8,000 confirmed infections and 3,901 deaths, with a fatality rate close to 50 percent.
This finding, published in the scientific journal Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, is based on the analysis of 49 outbreaks recorded in Africa between 1976 and 2025, compared with 26 climate oscillation indices. The predictive tool could detect early warning signals to identify periods and regions with more favorable meteorological conditions for outbreak emergence.
The researchers identified four climate oscillation indices particularly related to the virus's distribution, with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) being the most important macroclimatic factor. According to UMA Zoology Professor Raimundo Real, these oscillations modify meteorological patterns, such as rainfall in Africa, thereby altering ecological conditions that favor outbreak emergence.
Professor Jesús Olivero, specializing in Biogeography and Macroecology at the University of Málaga, clarifies that these remote climatic indicators do not directly cause Ebola but act as an anticipatory “clue” to environmental conditions closer to the biological phenomenon. He emphasizes the importance of early warning systems to anticipate outbreaks by observing risk factors.
The “useful window” for these climatic oscillations is estimated to be six to twelve months before a potential event, limiting its current autonomous predictive capacity. However, the study presents a first step as a surveillance tool that allows for preparedness measures when climatic conditions indicate an increased risk, identifying periods and locations that warrant greater epidemiological attention.
The scientific team from the UMA, including researchers Miguel Ángel Farfán and Ana L. Márquez, has been studying the distribution of the Ebola virus in Africa for over a decade to better understand its transmission mechanisms and the emergence of new outbreaks. Ebola is a zoonotic disease transmitted by animals.
The project is part of the ‘Spatio-temporal Pathogeography of Zoonoses Mediated by Flying Vertebrates’ project, co-financed by the European Regional Development Funds (ERDF) and managed by the Ministry of Science and Innovation, as well as project PPRO-RNM262-G-2023 from the University of Málaga, funded by the Junta de Andalucía and the ERDF. It has also received support from the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).
