Middle East Crisis Impact on Kerosene Prices and Airfare
Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have doubled kerosene costs, threatening flight cancellations and higher ticket prices from late May.
By Jordi Serra Martínez
••2 min read
IA
Generic image of an airplane in flight, with wing and engine visible.
Instability in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a significant increase in kerosene prices, which could result in flight cancellations and higher airfares starting in late May.
The price of a barrel of kerosene has soared, doubling in the last year to 203.6 dollars, an increase of 123%. This surge is already affecting airlines, with some companies implementing surcharges of up to 14 euros per ticket.
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"Fuel accounts for between 20 and 25% of an airline's costs, and the price has more than doubled. This situation is a major economic challenge for airlines."
Although a widespread shortage of kerosene is not yet observed, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and IATA have warned that the first supply disruptions could manifest from late May. From Barcelona El Prat Airport, management has indicated that airlines have not yet reported any supply issues.
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"Any increase in oil prices will eventually translate into higher prices, but it usually takes some time to be noticed."
IEA data reveals that Europe consumed 1.6 million barrels of kerosene daily last year, while production was 1.1 million. The difference is largely imported from the Persian Gulf, which exacerbates vulnerability to the current crisis.
The situation in Spain is relatively more favorable, as crude refined in the country covers 80% of its needs. Last year, 9.8 million tons of kerosene were produced, exceeding domestic demand of 7.7 million tons. However, the need to export to countries like France, Morocco, or the United States necessitates importing an additional 20%. Countries like the United Kingdom or Ireland are more dependent on aviation fuel imports.
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"More than 80% of the aviation kerosene loaded at Spanish airports is refined here, but we are also aware that if other countries have problems, we will be affected."
Given this scenario, some airlines are already considering 'tankering,' a practice that involves loading more fuel at airports with better supply to operate subsequently in destinations with less kerosene availability.