The retirement of the 'baby boom' generation has focused attention on migration as a solution to the shortage of young people supporting pension systems. However, in the Canary Islands, the foreign-born population shows an increasingly older profile. A study by Funcas indicates that migration not only fails to slow the aging of the overall population but slightly increases it, raising the index by 0.05 points. Factors such as the islands' appeal as a retirement destination for Europeans and the natural aging of those who arrived between 2000 and 2008 explain this trend.
The Canary Islands register 166 residents aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 0 to 14, exceeding the national average (161). This gap widens when observing only residents born outside Spain, where the ratio in the archipelago rises to 203 older individuals for every 100 younger ones, making it the third-highest value in the country, after Cantabria and Balearic Islands.
While immigration is crucial for population growth in Europe, given that natural growth is negative, the Funcas report qualifies that its contribution is limited. Migration can temporarily alleviate some effects of demographic change but does not resolve the underlying causes.
The study warns of future repercussions on public services. The increase in individuals over 54 among the foreign-born population anticipates, within the next ten to fifteen years, a greater demand for healthcare and dependency services. Added to this is the impact on the welfare system and pension expenditure, as a portion of immigrants who arrived in the 2000s will reach retirement age after having worked in Spain, generating "additional pressure on welfare systems".
This phenomenon adds to the structural imbalance of the Spanish pension system. The retirement of the 'baby boomers' and the increase in life expectancy will raise the number of beneficiaries. The aging of the migrant population does not substitute the pressure from the native population but amplifies it, presenting a considerable budgetary challenge.
The aging of the migrant population is explained by the concentration of arrivals in two specific periods (2000-2008 and 2021-2025). Those who arrived young in the first period are now between 40 and 55 years old. Furthermore, new arrivals increasingly include individuals over 54, often for family reunification, and fewer children under 15.
In tourist destinations like the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, the influence as retirement locations for Europeans (Germans, British, French, Nordics) is notable. On the other hand, births from migrant mothers have decreased by 10% between 2009 and 2024, adapting to the context of economic difficulties and low birth rates on the islands.
