A report by the organization Civio estimates that by the end of 2030, approximately 93,470 homes in Andalusia will have completed their protection period. However, it is projected that only between 25% and 40% of protected housing units (VPO) built in the last 35 years will retain their protection.
Protected homes (VPO) receive public subsidies to facilitate access for low- and middle-income individuals, in exchange for limitations such as controlled sale prices and income requirements for buyers. These conditions apply during a specific protection period.
Civio points out that several autonomous communities, including Andalusia, are implementing measures that circumvent these characteristics. One such measure is the reduction of the protection period; the Junta de Andalucía shortened this period from 30 years to between 7 and 15 years in 2020, making it one of the shortest in Spain.
The increase in sale prices for VPO is another factor. Provinces like Málaga and Seville record high VPO prices, often exceeding 1,200 euros per square meter. In Jaén, the price of VPO even surpasses that of the free market, making 60-square-meter apartments with parking close to 230,000 euros, inaccessible for many families.
Furthermore, the maximum income limit to access these homes is being raised. In Andalusia, the range is between 25,000 and 46,000 euros annually, increasing competition for protected housing.
According to the report, between 1991 and 2025, approximately 309,000 VPO were built in Andalusia. By the end of last year, a quarter had lost their VPO status. Of the 230,000 still within their protection period, 155,000 could be voluntarily declassified, moving to the free market without protection.
Civio estimates that the protected housing stock in Andalusia may have decreased to 74,350 units, although official data is unavailable for confirmation. Regarding protection periods, special regime homes have 15 years, general regime homes have a decade, and limited-price properties have 7 years.
In contrast, homes within the public housing stock owned by the Junta and municipalities follow a different regime. Andalusia has permanently protected around 48,000 rental properties owned by the Junta. However, there is a discrepancy in figures, with the Ministry of Housing counting fewer than 5,000 public rental units built since 1991 with permanent protection.
The central government proposes a state funding plan for VPO with permanent protection, conditioning aid on this measure. The Junta de Andalucía has rejected and appealed this regulation, arguing it infringes on the financial autonomy of the autonomous communities and that its state contribution would be disproportionate.
Nationally, it is projected that by the end of 2030, half of the 1.5 million protected homes built since 1991 will no longer be protected. Civio calculates that 736,000 protected properties will have moved to the free market, and another 206,000 could be declassified early.
The construction of VPO does not counteract this trend. In 2025, 11,000 VPO were built in Spain, 23% less than the previous year, far from the 60,000 annual units of the 1990s and 2000s. In Andalusia, the Junta has promoted around 16,500 VPO since 2019, with an average of less than 3,000 per year, and plans to increase this to 4,000.
The future of VPO in Andalusia is uncertain. Since 2020, available protected homes have significantly decreased due to the loss of protection and insufficient construction rates. It is estimated that in less than five years, lost VPO will outnumber available ones.
Considering a wide range due to a lack of information on early declassifications, in four years, between 25% and 40% of homes built in Andalusia over the last 35 years will remain protected.
