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Brussels backs Spanish economy's strength, forecasts euro leadership

The European Commission confirms Spain as the major eurozone economy set to grow the most in 2026 and 2027, predicting unemployment to fall below 10% for the first time since 2007.

Abstract economic growth charts of Spain in red and yellow colors.
IA

Abstract economic growth charts of Spain in red and yellow colors.

The Government welcomes the European Commission's forecasts, which affirm the solidity of the Spanish economy, highlighting its projected leadership in growth within the eurozone and a significant decrease in unemployment.

The Government believes the latest forecasts from the European Commission validate the strength of the Spanish economy and its unique position within the eurozone. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Business interprets this data as confirmation of the country's ability to maintain "high growth, create jobs, reduce unemployment, and advance fiscal consolidation," despite international uncertainty, the war in Iran, and volatile energy markets.
According to the Community Executive's Spring Forecasts, Spain is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. These figures solidify Spanish leadership among major euro economies, nearly tripling the estimated growth for the eurozone in 2026 (0.9%) and significantly exceeding the 1.2% projected for 2027. The department led by Carlos Cuerpo improves its forecast by one-tenth compared to autumn and raises the Ministry's own projection (2.2% for 2026) by two-tenths.
Spain's dynamism surpasses economies like Germany (0.6% in 2026, 0.9% in 2027), France (0.8% and 1.1%), and Italy (0.5% and 0.6%). The Ministry of Economy emphasizes the labor market's evolution, with projected employment growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 (compared to 0.4% in the eurozone). This is expected to allow the unemployment rate to fall to 9.9% in 2026 and 9.6% in 2027, breaking the 10% threshold for the first time since 2007.
Spanish inflation is projected to rise three-tenths in 2026 to 3.0%, while in the eurozone it will reach the same level with a nine-tenth increase. In 2027, Spanish inflation is expected to moderate to 2.5%. The Ministry attributes this relative containment to the "renewable shield" and government measures to mitigate energy volatility.
Regarding public finances, the European Commission estimates Spain's deficit will stand at 2.4% of GDP in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027, below the eurozone average (3.3% and 3.5%). Public debt is also projected to decrease, falling to 99.6% in 2026 and 98.9% in 2027, marking the first time below 100% since 2013.
The Government concludes that these forecasts confirm Spain's distinct position in the eurozone: growth well above average, strong job creation, reduced unemployment, moderating prices, and consolidated public finances, reinforcing confidence in the national economy despite the deteriorating international environment.

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